Forecasting Covid-19 New Cases in Cyprus

In this research article, the ANN approach was applied to forecast the future trend of COVID case volumes in Cyprus. This study is based on monthly new cases of COVID-19 in Cyprus for the period 1 January 2020 – 25 March 2021. The out-of-sample forecast covers the period 26 March 2021 – 31 July 2021. The residuals and forecast evaluation criteria (Error, MSE and MAE) of the applied model indicate that the model is very stable and quite acceptable in forecasting COVID-19 infections in Cyprus. The study suggests that the number of daily new COVID-19 cases is likely to follow a downwards trend over the out-of sample period. The government is encouraged to continue enforcing WHO guidelines on the prevention and control of the pandemic, including vaccinations and also people in the country are advised to continue behaving in a responsible manner with regards to face-mask wearing and following all sanitary rules put forward by WHO.