International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET International Open Access, Monthly, Peer Reviewed, Reputed Journal ISSN (online): 2581-3048

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DOI Prefix: 10.47001/IRJIET

Improving Neonatal Survival Rates in Sri Lanka through Utilization of Forecasts Produced By the ARIMA Model

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONIZICHIRe Project, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, ZimbabweThabani NYONIIndependent Researcher & Health Economist, Harare, Zimbabwe

Vol 7 No 8 (2023): Volume 7, Issue 8, August 2023 | Pages: 452-459

International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology

OPEN ACCESS | Research Article | Published Date: 25-09-2023

doi Logo doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.708066

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Abstract
This study uses annual time series data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR) for Sri Lanka from 1960 to 2019 to predict future trends of NMR over the period 2020 to 2030. Unit root tests have shown that the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. The optimal model based on AIC is the ARIMA (1,1,5) model. The study results indicate that neonatal mortality will remain low throughout the forecast period. Therefore, we encourage the government of Sri Lanka to design local policies that will keep neonatal deaths under control by focusing on improving quality, affordability and accessibility of maternal and child health care services at all levels particularly primary healthcare.
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Citation of this Article

Dr. Smartson. P. NYONI, Thabani NYONI, “Improving Neonatal Survival Rates in Sri Lanka through Utilization of Forecasts Produced By the ARIMA Model” Published in International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology - IRJIET, Volume 7, Issue 8, pp 452-459, August 2023. Article DOI https://doi.org/10.47001/IRJIET/2023.708066

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